Short

• Over 2.5 million tons of extra polysilicon capacity planned
• This would enable almost one terawatt of annual solar build

Announced and under construction polysilicon capacity, August 2022

There is now almost 2.5 million metric tons of new annual polysilicon production capacity planned, as of August. If successfully built, this would be enough to make 940 gigawatts of silicon solar modules (assuming a unit consumption of 2.6 grams per watt), equal to five times the size of the 2021 solar market. Most of the factories are set to be completed by 2024. Existing suppliers such as Tongwei and GCL Technology account for the majority of the extra polysilicon capacity, but new players, including module firms Canadian Solar and Trina, also plan their own production. The new group comprises a third of the announced volume. Polysilicon is currently the bottleneck for solar supply, driving up module prices and system costs over the past two years. However, BloombergNEF estimates the expansion plans will see polysilicon supply capability top 1.4 million tons in 2023. The return to oversupply could drop polysilicon prices to around $15 per kilogram next year, from $39/kg at present, enabling a 6.5 cents/W decrease in module prices.

Source:BNEF